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Warsh at the Fed: What Changes, What Does Not

Warsh at the Fed: What Changes, What Does Not

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote Wednesday on Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, a vote that was blocked for weeks by Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina until the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell last Friday. With that obstacle

The Fed Holds, Again. But For How Long?

The Fed Holds, Again. But For How Long?

The Federal Reserve goes into its April 28-29 FOMC meeting with interest rates sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%, exactly where they were after the March 18 decision. Markets have priced in a 100% probability of no change, according to CME FedWatch data, and Fed funds futures suggest

Defense Spending Is Rising, and It Will Cost Everyone

Defense Spending Is Rising, and It Will Cost Everyone

The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook devoted an entire chapter to the macroeconomic consequences of rising defense spending, and the findings are timely. As geopolitical tensions intensify, governments around the world are scaling up military budgets at a pace not seen in decades. In a typical defense spending

Europe’s Stagflation Risk Is Becoming Very Real

Europe’s Stagflation Risk Is Becoming Very Real

If the United States is feeling the oil shock in its inflation data, Europe is absorbing it through something far more dangerous: the prospect of simultaneous high inflation and near-zero growth. The European Central Bank’s own warning is stark. A prolonged Middle East conflict will likely trigger a

Oil’s Historic Shock and What It Means for Growth

Oil’s Historic Shock and What It Means for Growth

The numbers from the International Energy Agency’s April 2026 Oil Market Report are difficult to overstate. Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, following continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the de facto

The IMF’s Sobering Verdict on a World at War

The IMF’s Sobering Verdict on a World at War

Every April, the International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook and the report sets the tone for how policymakers and investors think about the global economy for the months ahead. The April 2026 edition, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War,” is the most sobering in recent memory.

Personal Finance in the Age of $4 Gas

Personal Finance in the Age of $4 Gas

For most American households, the Iran war is not an abstract geopolitical event. It is showing up at the pump, in grocery receipts, and on utility bills. U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $3.99 per gallon as of March 30, the highest in real terms in over two years.