THE PEOPLE’S ECONOMY

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Business & Economy

Focused analysis on macroeconomic shifts, policy changes, and their direct effects on communities across the globe.

Germany's Comeback Story Hits an Energy Wall

Germany's Comeback Story Hits an Energy Wall

Germany was supposed to be in recovery mode by now. The government had earmarked enormous fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure, business sentiment was improving, and analysts were penciling in GDP growth around 1% for 2026. Then the Iran conflict sent energy prices spiking, and those plans hit a wall.

Australia Is Staring Down a Third Rate Hike in 2026

Australia Is Staring Down a Third Rate Hike in 2026

Australian households are being squeezed from multiple directions at once, and a decision on Tuesday could make it considerably worse. Markets are pricing an 86% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May 5 meeting, which

Defense Spending Is Rising, and It Will Cost Everyone

Defense Spending Is Rising, and It Will Cost Everyone

The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook devoted an entire chapter to the macroeconomic consequences of rising defense spending, and the findings are timely. As geopolitical tensions intensify, governments around the world are scaling up military budgets at a pace not seen in decades. In a typical defense spending

Europe’s Stagflation Risk Is Becoming Very Real

Europe’s Stagflation Risk Is Becoming Very Real

If the United States is feeling the oil shock in its inflation data, Europe is absorbing it through something far more dangerous: the prospect of simultaneous high inflation and near-zero growth. The European Central Bank’s own warning is stark. A prolonged Middle East conflict will likely trigger a

Oil’s Historic Shock and What It Means for Growth

Oil’s Historic Shock and What It Means for Growth

The numbers from the International Energy Agency’s April 2026 Oil Market Report are difficult to overstate. Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, following continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and the de facto

The IMF’s Sobering Verdict on a World at War

The IMF’s Sobering Verdict on a World at War

Every April, the International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook and the report sets the tone for how policymakers and investors think about the global economy for the months ahead. The April 2026 edition, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War,” is the most sobering in recent memory.

Europe Is Caught Between Weak Growth and Rising Inflation. There Is No Easy Way Out.

Europe Is Caught Between Weak Growth and Rising Inflation. There Is No Easy Way Out.

The European economy entered 2026 with genuine momentum. Inflation had largely returned to target, real wages were rising for the first time in years, and the German fiscal expansion was expected to provide a meaningful boost to the bloc's largest economy. Then the Middle East war began, and