Fiscal Policy
Brazil made a fiscal commitment. In 2023, the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva presented Congress with a medium-term fiscal framework that included a zero primary deficit target for 2026 and, eventually, a primary surplus of 1% of GDP before the end of Lula's term.
Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank's decision to hold its deposit facility rate at 2% on April 30, 2026, was widely expected. What was not expected to generate as much attention is the conversation happening inside the Governing Council about whether that 2% will be the bottom of the rate
Monetary Policy
The Bank of England voted 8 to 1 to keep its benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in April 2026. One member voted to raise rates to 4%. That split says something about where the debate inside Threadneedle Street currently sits. UK inflation has been moving in the wrong
Monetary Policy
Shin Hyun Song was barely out of his inauguration ceremony as Bank of Korea Governor when the policy calculus he will spend his four year term navigating became clear. Rising oil prices from the Iran conflict are simultaneously pushing inflation higher and threatening to slow economic growth. He told markets
Fiscal Policy
Argentina is expected to regain access to international capital markets in 2026. That is a sentence that would have seemed implausible just two years ago. Country risk ratings have fallen from 2,500 basis points in late 2023 to around 600 basis points by the end of 2025, a collapse
Fiscal Policy
The results from England's local elections in early May 2026 landed like an economic signal as much as a political one. Reform UK made sweeping gains across former Labour strongholds, with voter frustration centered on three issues: the economy, immigration, and taxes. When a governing party loses ground
Monetary Policy
The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, and the statement that followed made clear this was not a comfortable hold. The Governing Council acknowledged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have both intensified. In plain terms, Europe
Monetary Policy
Mexico is navigating one of its more complex policy moments in years. Banxico paused and held the policy rate at 7.00%, pursuing its 3% inflation target in a context where the peso has remained strong and the central bank is moving cautiously. Mexico's inflation was running at
Monetary Policy
Two of Europe's most closely watched central banks kept rates unchanged last week, but neither did so with any great confidence. The Bank of England kept its base rate unchanged at 3.75%. In its accompanying statement, the Monetary Policy Committee noted that the outlook for energy prices
Monetary Policy
Brazil's monetary policy story in 2026 is not whether rates will fall, it is how quickly. Brazil has one of the highest nominal policy rates in the world, with the Selic rate at 15%. The lagged effects of tight monetary policy are eroding purchasing power and restricting consumer
Monetary Policy
The Bank of Japan's April decision was technically a hold, but the details read more like a warning shot. The BOJ now projects the year-on-year rate of increase in CPI, excluding fresh food, to be in the range of 2.5% to 3.0% in fiscal
Monetary Policy
When the European Central Bank postponed its planned rate reductions in March and the Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, both decisions were framed as prudent caution in the face of uncertainty. That framing has not changed in the weeks since, but the underlying dilemma has sharpened considerably.